The Current Landscape: Visa Caps, Prioritization & Uncertainty

The move from MD107 to MD111 represents the Australian government’s effort to create a more equitable visa processing system. Under MD111, student visa applications are prioritized until each institution reaches 80% of its allocated net overseas student commencement number. Once this threshold is met, that institution’s applications are deprioritized, giving preference to universities that have not yet reached the 80% mark.

This new directive follows Australia’s failed attempt to cap international student enrolments through the ESOS Amendment Bill, which did not pass in the Senate. While MD111 offers more balanced processing, concerns remain over declining offshore student visa applications, particularly from key markets:

• India: -60%
• Vietnam: -58%
• Kenya: -88%

(Source: Neil Fitzroy, Oxford International Education Group, via The PIE News)

With fewer visa spots available and higher competition for quality students, institutions must shift their focus from recruitment volume to student retention, experience, and long-term value.

A Very Concerning Message - But Where Can We Have Influence?

While government policies and visa approval rates are largely beyond institutional control, universities can make a major impact on student well-being and experience. According to The 2024 Study Australia International Student Sentiment Survey (see Image 1), among the top 9 concerns international students face, the following reasons NOT to enrol have been identified:

• Feeling sad, lonely, or isolated
• Settling into and living/studying in Australia
• Student mental health
• Feeling unsafe or not welcome

Obviously, these reasons are very worrying. However, the GOOD news is that universities can actually have influence on these reasons. 

By creating stronger emotional connections, friendships, and a supportive environment, universities can significantly improve student satisfaction and distinguish themselves from competitors.

Image 1: The most concerning issues students studying in Australia are most concerned about (Source: 2024 Study Australia International Student Sentiment Survey). 

The Power of Pre-Arrival Friendships: Backed by Research

A growing body of research highlights the critical role of social connections in enrolment success. Surveys and studies, including data from INTO’s 2024 Global Agent Survey, demonstrate that:

• Students who form friendships before arrival report 40% lower levels of loneliness. (Source: INTO Survey on Student Experience)
• Pre-arrival social integration increases conversion and retention rates by up to 56%. (Source: Multiple Australian university surveys)
• Students who feel welcomed and emotionally connected are significantly more likely to accept their offer, making them less likely to transfer or drop out.

Additionally, a 2024 INTO survey found that students who participated in pre-arrival support programs had significantly higher satisfaction levels upon arrival (89%) and felt more prepared for their studies (92%). Programs like ‘Get Ready to Study’ in the UK and the PASS Program in the US have demonstrated that pre-arrival engagement significantly improves student outcomes.

Multi-year Goin’s surveys (among 200.000+ students) further confirm that:

• International students who make social connections before arrival report higher levels of mental well-being.
• Students who engage in pre-arrival networking activities are more likely to feel safe and welcome.

Thus, by creating friendships and social integration before students even arrive in Australia, institutions can dramatically improve retention, mental health, and overall student satisfaction. As Image 2 shows, this will result into boosted enrolment numbers in the short and long term.

Image 2: Where universities should invest to positively influence the factors they can control

Taking it to the Next Level: Leveraging Pre-Arrival Friendships in the MD111 Era

With MD111 reshaping student visa prioritization, universities must strategically focus on attracting and retaining high-value students—those who:

• Fill specific program gaps
• Stay longer (higher retention = higher revenue per student)
• Have strong visa approval prospects
• Contribute to institutional diversity

By optimizing the student experience from the moment of admission, universities can:

🚀 Maximize visa approvals & recruitment efficiency
🚀 Reduce early attrition & increase student success
🚀 Strengthen institutional reputation & word-of-mouth marketing
🚀 Optimize the recruitment funnel for long-term growth

How Goin’ Helps Universities Boost Enrolments in this Environment

At Goin’ Connect, we specialize in helping institutions enhance student engagement, retention, and satisfaction by facilitating pre-arrival social bonding. Through our platform, students can:

✅ Find and connect with future classmates before arrival
✅ Build friendships, reducing loneliness and isolation
✅ Feel safer and more supported in their transition to Australia
✅ Become more engaged and satisfied with their university experience
✅ Decide to go together and both accept their offers

As Australian universities compete for a shrinking pool of international students, investing in student experience is no longer optional—it’s essential.

👉 Curious how pre-arrival connections can enhance student experience and enrolments? 

See how Goin' succesfully built a zero-effort thriving student community for The University of Sydney within just one month—read the full case study here. This approach is already being implemented at Newcastle University, University of Melbourne, QUT, University of Canberra, RMIT, and Sydney University, helping students settle in, feel safe, and succeed both academically and socially.

Final Thought: The Future of Student Recruitment is Human-Centered

MD111 has reshaped the visa landscape, making student retention and experience more crucial than ever. Universities that focus on building emotional connections, friendships, and well-being will gain extensive competitive advantage—not just in enrolments, but in long-term student success.

By prioritizing pre-arrival friendships and student integration, institutions can increase retention, enhance satisfaction, and thrive in the evolving Australian student recruitment market.